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17 July 2010

Australian Political Betting: Election Called, by Greg Tingle - 17th July 2010

Readers er punters, the Australian federal election has been called by Prime Minister Julie Gillard, affectionately labeled 'Jungle Girl' by Media Man. To square things up the challenger for the title belt er Prime Ministership is Tony "The Bruiser" Abbott. Political betting tips, odds, background and more. Media Man and Gambling911 take you ringside for round one as the campaigning officially begins...

Punters, donkey's, politicians, my fellow citizens, the Australian political election is on.

Media Man and Gambling911 have learned that the Gillard VS Abbott showdown is 21st August. Mark it down and get ready to put money down if you're that way inclined.

Our friends at Centrebet are widely regarded as the the leading Australian bookie for political bets, and later in our bulletin we have a betting guide for your enjoyment an perhaps use. Got to love the Centrebet crew.

Centrebet head analyst Neil Evans had last week advised August 28 was the election date. Wrong Neil... you weren't trying to lead us astray were you mate?

Gillard is the shortest-price Prime Minister since Harold Holt led the Liberal Party to Australia's biggest federal victory way back in 1966.

Evans tipped us off that a prominent Australian lawyer had waged $60,000 for Labor to win at $1.22.

Centrebet has the ALP at $A1.22 favourite to win, the Age reports, compared to $A4.10 on offer for Tony Abbott's opposition.

A new Centrebet client yesterday put $20,000 on the Coalition at $4.10, although so much money has flowed for Labor since Ms Gillard's ascension that it did not bring in the ALP's starting price.

The single largest punt of $100,000 was made on Ms Gillard by a Perth punter last week.

Punters reckon the Greens' Adam Bandt is a good chance to take the Labor-held seat of Melbourne, where Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner is retiring.

Press Conference News...

Prime Minister Gillard arrived at Government House at 10.40am today to get the go ahead from the Governor-General, Quentin Bryce, to dissolve the Parliament.

She then held a press conference and said "I seek a mandate from the Australian people to move Australia forward. This election presents Australians with a very clear choice...whether we move Australia forward or go back. Moving forward with confidence also requires a strong set of convictions and a clear set of values. And over the last few weeks I have had the opportunity to share those values with the nation. I believe in hard work. I believe in the benefits and dignity of work. I believe in what comes as an individual when you do your best and you earn your keep. So in this, the forthcoming election campaign, I'll be asking the Australian people for their trust. "I'll be asking Australians for their trust so that we can move forward together".

The challenger, Tony "The Bruiser" Abbott had this to say...

"If there was one policy on which the coalition lost the last election, it was workplace relations. On workplace relations policy, the coalition trashed its own brand and has to re-establish trust. Trust will only be restored by demonstrating, over time, that the coalition again has the steady hands in which people's job security and pay and conditions can once more safely rest. Work Choices is dead. I've said that before. Today I've not just buried the body but cremated it too."

The Bruiser Jogs Into The Hilton Hotel Ballroom To Standing Ovation...

The challenger jogged into the Hilton Hotel ballroom to an impressive standing ovation and delivered a speech which was a mighty pre-election attack on the government.

"We are ready to govern" said the prizefighter.

Abbot noted that past 3 weeks were "chaotic" for the federal Labor government, since factional warlords "executed" Mr Rudd.

"There's been the mining tax fix based on a succession of lies, there's been the boatpeople fix that got lost somewhere in the Timor Sea and there's been the economic credibility fix that was hijacked by Kevin Rudd courtesy of questions from Laurie Oakes at the press club" he proclaimed.

The coalition requires a swing of 2.4% in order to get back into government, and note its just one term after Mr Rudd led Labor to an emphatic victory over John Howard's 11 years plus government.

The coalition will have to take 12 seats off the government and hold 5 seats, now notionally Labor, to govern in its own right.

Introducing Mr Abbott, Nationals leader Warren Truss told the audience that Ms Gillard could not be trusted.

"Kevin Rudd could not trust her word - why should we?".

Australian Federal Election Betting: A Guide...

The Australian Federal Parliament is bicameral, as it has two chambers: the House of Representatives (Lower House) and the Senate (Upper House). Members of each house are determined by a compulsory secret ballot of all Australians from across six states and two territories. These votes are then tallied using a preferential system (see below).

A system of Cabinet or "responsible" government based on the British Westminster tradition is practised. The party or coalition of parties commanding a majority in the House of Representatives becomes the government and provides the ministers (including the Prime Minister), all of whom must be members of the Parliament. Elections for the House of Representatives are held at least every three years.

The Constitution requires membership of the Australian House of Representatives to be, as nearly as practicable, twice that of the Senate. The House has 150 members: 50 from New South Wales; 37 from Victoria; 27 from Queensland; 12 from South Australia; 15 from Western Australia; five from Tasmania; two from the Australian Capital Territory; and two from the Northern Territory.

A Government need not command a majority in the Senate which has an equal number of members (12) from each State. The Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory were not represented in the Federal Parliament until 1975 when they each gained two Senators.

Normally, Senators serve a six-year term with half the Senate retiring every three years. Senators elected to represent the Territories, however, serve a maximum of three years and their terms coincide with those of the members of the House of Representatives. In Senate elections, the people of each State and Territory vote as single electorates.

Australian Federal Election Betting - Preferential Voting

The essence of preferential voting is that voters number candidates on the ballot paper in a rank order of choice. You put the number 1 next to your first choice candidate, 2 next to your second choice, and so on. If your first choice candidate is not elected and no candidate receives half of the vote, your vote may be re-examined for its next preference. The point of the system is to elect the most preferred candidate, to choose the candidate that can build an absolute majority of support in the electorate rather than the simple majority required for first past the post voting.

Australian Federal Election Betting - Bet Types

Centrebet offer Australian Federal Election odds as to the winner of the overall election (Coalition or Labor) as well as betting odds for individual seats of parliament.

Centrebet does not accept bets on when an election will be held, as obviously there would be a group of people within the Gillard Government who would have already decided.

Centrebet does accept bets on the election outcome; eg - Abbott (Liberal coalition) or Gillard (Labor). All up, just under $1.9 million was bet on the 2004 Australian federal election. *Public thank you to Centrebet for the detailed run down on political betting.

Stay tuned for more updates.

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The Late Mail...

Western Australian businessman and gorilla marketer, Kym Illman, a Media Man friend and associate, has ambushed the election... kind of... Illman, the "evil genius" has devised and now launched a clever online website where you can nominated yourself and your friends to run in the election. Check it out

Wrap Up...

Gillard or Abbott? Tell us in the forum. Readers, here's the standard joke for political campaigns the world over... "How do you know when a politician is lying? When their lips are moving! No offence Julia and Tony... we didn't make the joke up, we're just repeating it for the loyal international audience, probably more familiar with "I did not have sexual relations with that women" and 'Casino Jack'.

*The writer is a special contributor for Gambling911

*Media Man is primarily a media, publicity and internet portal development company. Gaming is just one of a bakers dozen of sectors they cover. They also offer political commentary and analysis.

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