Media Man Int Blog
Media’s $100b man says the ad market has room to grow - October 2023
Christian Juhl sits atop a $100 billion-a-year budget and is one of the world’s most powerful media executives.
As the global boss of GroupM, the biggest advertising buying group in the world, he oversees the combined spending power for thousands of brands, including Ford, Colgate-Palmolive, Google, Nestlé, Unilever, Mars and Coca-Cola.
GroupM uses that scale to buy media space and sell it back to its clients. Each year, according to the best independent estimates, GroupM spends almost $US64 billion ($101 billion) of its clients’ money on ads.
At that level, a media executive can talk in sweeping, market-wide statements. Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, clear inflationary pressures, an unsteady future for commercial real estate, and higher interest rates will have tremendous impact on advertising and media markets. It just hasn’t been fully felt yet, Mr Juhl said.
Locally, the ad industry accounts for $53 billion, or 2.1 per cent of GDP, new research released on Friday found. GroupM predicted advertising revenue – how much the world’s advertisers spend – will grow 5.9 per cent in 2023 and 6 per cent in 2024.
“I certainly see all of those unknowns out there, that makes you careful about the future,” Mr Juhl said.
“But generally, I think it’s been a pretty resilient marketplace. We’ve still been able to provide growth for our clients during that time period. I’m still cautiously optimistic we can find ways of growth through this.”
Advertising is going through a resurgence, he said. Rolling lockdowns and forced isolation during COVID-19 drove huge adoption of digital channels. Meta burned billions of dollars on a metaverse then launched a Twitter clone called Threads, TikTok kept growing at breakneck speed, and Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Disney+ have all started adding advertising-subsidised tiers to their platforms.
“Advertising has always been a really important part of the economy. It was more surprising when you had [Netflix executives] Reed Hastings or Ted Sarandos saying, ‘We’ll never take advertising on Netflix’,” Mr Juhl said.
“How do you have such large valuable audiences and not open it up in a meaningful way to brands? [Now] there’s probably more inventory available than there’s been in a long time.”
The days of the massive, culture-defining 30- or 60-second ad spot are fading, Mr Juhl said, despite the drawcards of the Super Bowl and the Olympics. “But, largely, viewership on those has been on the decline for some time,” he said.
Likewise, the resurgence of advertising is happening while tech and media companies slash costs. That’s an inevitable correction, he said.
“There’s been so much stimulus put into the market, and there’s been so much growth post COVID, that there’s a natural time right now where I think a lot of companies are just [thinking], ‘Should we slow down?’ So I think that’s more of a natural cycle than sort of ‘Hey, let’s panic and run for the hills,’” Mr Juhl said.
“You have to look at that in the grand scheme of things. We’re still looking at a massive growth mountain over the last four years.”
The true impact of rapid interest rate rises is yet to be fully felt, he said. At some point, that will severely hit consumer spending. But Mr Juhl is upbeat about the future. Government interventions to rescue businesses like Silicon Valley Bank should give some confidence to the market.
“I wouldn’t underestimate governments changing positions quickly in face of all this uncertainty to provide security for those that have been over-extended,” he said. “What happened? They bailed them out. There’s reason to still be optimistic.”
UFC
KHAMZAT CHIMAEV: SMASH EVERYONE AND GET ALL THE BELTS
UFC Superstar Khamzat Chimaev’s Desire To Crush The Best In The World Continues As He Faces Former Welterweight Champion At UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2
Nothing was going to stop Khamzat Chimaev from fighting at UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2. After more than a year on the sidelines, “Borz” didn’t care who he faced or at what weight class – he just wants to fight, and he made that clear by accepting Kamaru Usman at middleweight after his bout with Paulo Costa fell through just over a week ago.
The 29-year-old superstar told reporters in Abu Dhabi at UFC 294 media day that the whole process of switching from fighting Costa to fighting Usman was a simple one.
“My manager called me to fight Usman and I said ‘OK, let’s go’,” Chimaev said. “For me, it doesn’t matter.”
When it became clear that Costa was going to have to pull out of their middleweight bout due to an infection in his elbow, Chimaev couldn’t help but feel desperate for a fight. He wrote a message to UFC CEO Dana White begging for a fight with anyone. Ranked, unranked, veteran, or newcomer.
“I wrote Dana White and I said, ‘Brother, give me someone, I need to fight,’” Chimaev recalled. “But then my manager called so I deleted the message.”
Once the fight was announced, many fans were thrilled to find out Chimaev was going to fight Usman in a matchup between the former welterweight champion and one of the division’s top contenders.
But Chimaev moved up to middleweight following a weight miss at UFC 279 and that’s how the fight with Costa came about. Now it’s Usman, and Chimaev is just as excited as the fans to finally showcase what he can do against “The Nigerian Nightmare”.
“Since day one when I get to the UFC, everyone spoke about Khamzat and Usman and our wrestling skills and our striking – all of these things. He’s an old version, I’m new. Like iPhones come out - he’s like iPhone 5 and I’m like iPhone Pro,” Chimaev joked. “If there is gold there, of course he’s going to cut the weight, but he couldn’t take the belt so that’s why he asked [to step in]. I’m Khamzat Chimaev. That’s why he comes up to fight to fight me. The guy comes for money, and the money fight is me.”
Chimaev knows that the public applauds Usman’s decision to step in, and while that’s well deserved, he also knows that coming in on short notice could potentially give Usman the ability to point to his lack of preparation if he were to lose.
“The guy comes just to make money,” Chimaev said. “Of course, he comes to win, everyone comes to the fight to win, but he has all the excuses.”
A win over Usman – and a dominant one like we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Chimaev – would certainly skyrocket him to the top of the list for title fights at both welterweight and middleweight.
Chimaev believes his UFC career is just getting started. He’s planning on being at the top for the next ten years.
He’s confident that he’ll end up facing Costa at some point and he also has his sights on fighting with Israel Adesanya, battling middleweight champion Sean Strickland, and competing with welterweight champion Leon Edwards.
And that’s exactly what Chimaev wants. He wants to face the best in the world and beat the best in the world in a way that no one has ever seen before. If he can do that, he isn’t concerned with how long it takes him to get to a title shot.
He knows that getting belts and records is inevitable.
“I want to fight the best guys. It’s not fun to watch if I’m going to smash somebody that nobody knows. It’s not going to make UFC any money,” Chimaev said. “I’m not after just the title; I’m after all the heads in the UFC. Smash somebody, make money and be happy.
“If I smash everyone, finish everyone, they have to give me all belts.”
UFC
Dana White Announces UFC 294 Co-Main Event
KAMARU USMAN TO FACE KHAMZAT CHIMAEV IN UFC 294 CO-MAIN EVENT
Former Welterweight Champion Replaces Paulo Costa At UFC 294; Faces Rising Star Chimaev
The UFC 294 card continued it evolution Wednesday when UFC CEO Dana White took to social media to announce a major change to the co-main event.
“You know what we’ve been dealing with this week. We just got the big fight done yesterday, the highly anticipated rematch in Abu Dhabi: Makhachev vs Volkanovski,” he said, referencing Tuesday evening’s announcement that Charles Oliveira was injured and would be replaced by the featherweight champion Volkanovski.
“Now you’ve been waiting for the co-main event. Costa’s hurt…we got it done. The No. 4 welterweight in the world, Khamzat Chimaev, is moving up to middleweight and he will face the No. 1 welterweight in the world: Kamaru Usman.”
Usman was one of the most dominant champions in UFC welterweight history before dropping the only two losses of his career back-to-back vs current champion Leon Edwards. He’ll look to build another run to the title, beginning on just 9 days notice vs Chimaev October 21.
Chimaev has become appointment viewing since joining the UFC roster in 2020. Undefeated in his 12 professional bout, with most of his wins coming within the first two rounds, his dynamic style remains a puzzle yet to be solved.
“No. 1 vs No. 4 at middleweight, Usman vs Chimaev,” White said excitedly. “I will see you in Abu Dhabi!”
UFC
CHARLES OLIVEIRA OUT, ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI IN AGAINST ISLAM MAKHACHEV AT UFC 294
Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski Replaces Injured Charles Oliveira For Lightweight Ttile Rematch Against Islam Makhachev
UFC CEO Dana White announced a change for the main event at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi. Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski will step in against lightweight champion Islam Makhachev after Charles Oliveira was forced to pull out of their scheduled rematch. The main event between Makhachev and Volkanovski is a rematch of their epic duel from February at UFC 284 in Perth, Australia, where Makhachev bested “The Great” via unanimous decision.
The previous bout between Makhachev and Volkanovski was a back-and-forth affair in front of an electric Australian crowd, who were in full voice supporting their fellow countryman at UFC’s first event in Australia since October 2019. Makhachev successfully defended his title, but some believed Volkanovski did enough to earn double-champ status that night. After the fight, the two champions shared pleasantries, and Volkanovski started pining for a rematch – even saying he was keen to fight Makhachev in Abu Dhabi.
A few months later, Volkanovski returned to the featherweight division to defend his 145-pound belt against interim featherweight champion Yair Rodriguez at the end of International Fight Week at UFC 290. Makhachev, on the other hand, has not competed since their initial bout. Headlining UFC’s pay-per-view in Abu Dhabi for a second consecutive year, Makhachev hoped to also repeat his performance at UFC 280 when he submitted Oliveira in the second round to win the lightweight title his mentor and close friend Khabib Nurmagomedov once held.
The disappointment for Oliveira, meanwhile, is understandably high. “Do Bronx” was adamant that he was too caught up in the intensity of the first fight with Makhachev, particularly after Oliveira was forced to vacate the title when he missed weight before knocking out Justin Gaethje at UFC 274 in Arizona, and thusly underperformed.
Oliveira, never a stranger to bouncing back from adversity, showed he was still one of the best lightweights in the world when he ran through Beneil Dariush at UFC 289, snapping Dariush’s 8-fight win streak.
While one can assume the winner in Abu Dhabi will face Oliveira next, it does get a bit more complicated should Volkanovski win a second belt. That opens the door to a trilogy, a Volkanovski-Oliveira fight or even a situation involving Justin Gaethje, whom many believed earned a title shot with his epic knockout win over Dustin Poirier at UFC 291 for the BMF title.
All that said, the Abu Dhabi fans are in for a treat with UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 on October 21.
(UFC)
UFC 294 Tale Of The Tape and Fight Card
TALE OF THE TAPE
Islam Makhachev
Age: 31
Record: 24-1
Height: 178cm
Reach: 179cm
Leg reach: 103cm
Alexander Volkanovski
Age: 35
Record: 26-2
Height: 168cm
Reach: 182cm
Leg reach: 91cm
THE BETTING ODDS?
Volkanovski is once again the underdog despite coming extremely close to pulling off an upset in his first fight against Makhachev.
Volkanovski to win — $3.10
Volkanovski win TKO/KO — $6.25
Volkanovski win via points/decision — $5.80
Volkanovski win via submission — $26
Makhachvev to win — $1.37
Makhachev win via TKO/KO — $6
Makhachev win via points/decision — $2.74
Makhachev win via submission — $4
Draw — $51
FULL UFC 294 CARD (ALL TIMES AEDT)
Main Card (from 5am AEDT)
Islam Makhachev (c) v Alexander Volkanovski for the UFC lightweight title
Kamaru Usman v Khamzat Chimaev — middleweight
Magomed Ankalaev v Johnny Walker — light heavyweight
Ikram Aliskerov v Warlley Alves — middleweight
Said Nurmagomedov v Muin Gafurov — bantamweight
Prelims (from 1am AEDT)
Tim Elliott v Muhammad Mokaev — flyweight
Mohammad Yahya v Trevor Peek — lightweight
Javid Basharat v Victor Henry — bantamweight
Abu Azaitar v Sedriques Dumas — middleweight
Mike Breeden v Anshul Jubli — lightweight
Nathaniel Wood v Muhammad Naimov — featherweight
Viktoriia Dudakova v Jinh Yu Frey — women’s strawweight
Shara Magomedov v Bruno Silva — middleweight
